Debates and Polls

So I find myself writing about what probably half the world of blogging is writing about. The Sarah Palin - Joe Biden VP debate in the USA last night. I have to admit, I have great respect for both of the candidates who stood up there last night. Both were courteous to one another, both were passionate about their views, and both had the luster of being professional while they were up there as well as at least the veneer of being in touch with their constituency. Biden talking about walking down the street and spending time talking to people from his home town neighborhood worked well for him, while Palin's homey attitude and 'Say it ain't so Joe' responses probably touched more Americans than even she realized. It was good to see politics like that, especially at the end when both families came up and were talking and socializing with one another. That is politics the way it should be, at some of its finest.

So who won? What do the polls say? It depends on the poll. WESH channel 2 ran a poll throughout the debate and displayed the results as the debate progressed. At any given time both candidates were up with a 20 point spread in the poll. By the end, WESH 2's poll among viewers had Biden up in the mid 60's percent tile while Palin was in the mid 30's. This morning on the Drudge Report it showed Palin up over Biden 70 - 28 with 2% saying that neither candidate won.

Polls are used to determine public opinion on just about everything. Run by schools and news media and politically minded organizations, polls do their best to showcase what America wants to the rest of the world and to the candidates. But polls are never the be all or end all of the political world. Don't believe me? If he were alive I'd say you ask Thomas Dewey, Republican candidate against Harry Truman in the 1948 Election. The Chicago Daily Tribune, based on polls, showed Dewey defeating Truman. In 2004, Kerry was shown by all the exit polls as being far ahead of Bush, yet Bush won by a substantial margin. So how can polls be so terribly inaccurate from the truth?

The key lies in the democratic process. We as citizens, are required to go to our local precincts, check in with some form of ID, be a registered voter in our precinct, and vote at a single location. The line can be rather long at times. It all depends on where you live. Many of us work during the day. Our 9-5 jobs keep us pretty busy, so we vote when we can. Usually racing to the voting booth after work, or leaving early to make sure we get the vote in before we start the workday. Polls however, are conducted usually by phone. And usually they're conducted during the day to early evening. Who's home during the middle of the day? The unemployed. Students. Homemakers. The unemployed are, statistically, more likely to side with Democratic candidates. Students at colleges? Very likely to side with Democratic candidates. (Another post will be written about liberal colleges, I guarantee). Homemakers are typically more conservative in their viewpoints. So polls showing Obama leading McCain by 9 points? Obama takes it to mean that he's actually ahead. McCain seems to be smart enough to know that polls mean nothing. What matters, in the long run, is getting up and getting out to vote. Students? typically don't vote. Obama can hold all the rallies he wants at college campuses across the nation and it won't do much to increase the statistic of 18-21 year old voter apathy.

So what should we Americans do when faced with polls? Ignore them. They're about as accurate at predicting the true outcome as a pain in your hip is at predicting rain. Though I'd bet on the pain in your hip more than the polls.